Ookla's latest connectivity report shows direct-to-device satellite connections expanded 24.5% over nine months, with the United States accounting for 45.9% of global connections. Adoption remains below 1.5% of mobile users even in leading markets.
The numbers point to two simultaneous truths about satellite's trajectory: rapid absolute growth, and a ceiling that geography makes structural rather than temporary.
Tony O'Sullivan, CEO of network services provider RETN, argues the ceiling is hardest in the places that matter most commercially. In dense urban environments, satellite simply cannot undercut the economics of data carried by fibre-connected cell towers. The infrastructure is already there, the capacity is already paid for, and the per-bit cost makes satellite uncompetitive. Adoption in those markets, in his view, will remain effectively zero.
The price collapse in rural and suburban markets is real and ongoing. Starlink's trajectory illustrates the direction: five or six years ago, low-Earth orbit broadband ran at around 25 Mbps and cost roughly $6 per megabit. Today the same provider delivers 200 Mbps at $0.60 per Mbps — a tenfold improvement in cost and an eightfold jump in throughput. Latency has moved from the 500-700 millisecond range, which made satellite effectively useless for real-time applications, down to 20-60 milliseconds.
More competition is coming. Eutelsat, Amazon Kuiper and Blue Origin are all building out or preparing constellations. O'Sullivan's view is that increased competition is a certainty rather than a possibility, and that pricing will keep falling as a result. The question is where that fall in price changes the competitive equation against terrestrial infrastructure — and the answer, for high-density cities, appears to be: not yet, and possibly not ever.
RETN is a global network services provider with operations across Europe, Russia, and Central Asia.
