The global connected vehicle installed base is on track to more than double in the next decade, reaching 1.05 billion units by 2035, but the imminent shutdown of LTE networks threatens to strand vehicles that were designed around that connectivity.
New research from Omdia, published 23 September, puts the 2025 connected vehicle installed base at 473.7 million units, implying a compound annual growth rate of 8.3% to reach the 2035 projection. The growth scenario is not in question; what Omdia is flagging is a timing collision between that expansion and the network transition underway at mobile operators.
LTE is embedded across functions that go well beyond entertainment: dynamic EV routing, over-the-air software updates, advanced driver assistance systems and real-time safety services all depend on cellular connectivity. When mobile network operators begin decommissioning LTE infrastructure from 2030, vehicles designed around LTE but not yet retired will face a connectivity gap. Omdia describes this as a worse scenario than the 2G and 3G transitions because of how deeply LTE is woven into safety-critical systems rather than peripheral features.
"As the industry advances toward software-defined vehicles, and increasingly explores what AI-defined vehicles might look like, it has rightly embraced foundational enablers such as eSIM and hybrid terrestrial and non-terrestrial connectivity," said John Canali, Principal Analyst, IoT at Omdia. "However, progress on 5G adoption has been slow. With mobile network operators beginning to decommission LTE from 2030, automakers face a worst-case scenario: vehicles that depend on connectivity but cannot attach to a viable network."
The remediation path Omdia outlines requires OEMs to align vehicle roadmap planning, service level agreement frameworks and technology upgrade paths with mobile operator timelines now, rather than treating connectivity as a feature specification that can be addressed at end-of-life. The research also points to service-based architectures and recurring revenue models as areas that will become more important as the installed base grows; both depend on reliable, sustained connectivity.
For enterprise fleets and technology buyers, the practical implication is a procurement question. Vehicles acquired between now and 2030 will still be on the road when LTE networks begin to close. Whether those assets can be upgraded to 5G over the air or will require hardware intervention is a question fleet managers should be asking vendors before signing long-term contracts.
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