The forecast comes from Omdia’s Cellular IoT Market Tracker covering 2023 to 2035. It identifies eRedCap as the technology with the most headroom over the near term: the standard inherits the use cases of its predecessor RedCap but launches into an environment with both wider 5G Standalone network availability and lower module prices than RedCap faced. The world’s first eRedCap module launches took place in 2026, and Omdia expects adoption to scale faster than RedCap managed.
RedCap’s trajectory is instructive. Despite industry optimism at its introduction, uptake was slow, constrained by high module costs and limited 5G SA infrastructure. The Apple Watch incorporating RedCap in its latest generation provided some momentum over the past year, but the technology never reached anticipated volumes. eRedCap is entering a more favourable environment.
NB-IoT retains a commanding position, particularly in Asia and Oceania, which accounted for 86% of global NB-IoT module shipments in 2025. LTE-M is expanding its footprint globally, with Asia and Oceania forecast to capture 58% of module market share by 2035.
“With 5G SA networks now widely deployed and module pricing expected to be significantly lower from launch, eRedCap will avoid the infrastructure and cost barriers that initially hindered RedCap adoption. The result is a rich technology ecosystem where IoT companies can choose from NB-IoT, LTE-M, Cat-1bis, RedCap, and eRedCap—each optimized for different performance and cost requirements.” — Alexander Thompson, Senior Analyst for IoT, Omdia
Geographically, two regulatory frameworks are reshaping demand. The European Cyber Resilience Act, which mandates secure-by-design products with five-year vulnerability patching obligations, is pulling enterprise buyers toward eSIM and eUICC architectures. In North America, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the Inflation Reduction Act are driving smart grid, utility, and EV charging deployments.
The automotive vertical is the growth outlier. Omdia projects automotive IoT connections to exceed 1 billion by 2035, with 89% of those modules using 5G technologies. Vehicle-to-everything communications and the steady standardisation of cellular connectivity across Chinese and international manufacturers are both contributing factors.
To stay across the latest in cloud, AI and enterprise tech analysis from Compare the Cloud, subscribe to our weekly newsletter at https://www.comparethecloud.net/newsletter
